New Orleans 70.3 Predictions

>> Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Some say this will jinx the whole race. Whatever. I don’t believe that stuff. Here’s what I’m THINKING I can do on Sunday ON A GOOD DAY, comparing my predictions to my past 2 Half IM splits:

1.2 Mile Swim:
- 2007: 44:35
- 2008: 38:13 (maybe a little short)
- NO Prediction: 39:30

56 Mile Bike:
- 2007: 3:05:13
- 2008: 2:54 (short - around 3:00 if correct distance)
- NO Prediction: 2:50 (18.5 mph)

13.1 Mile Run:
- 2007: 1:48
- 2008: 1:53
- NO Prediction: 1:40

- 2007: 9:08 total
- 2008: 7:57 total
- NO Prediction: 9:00

- 2007: 5:47:13
- 2008: 5:33:58 (but a little short overall)
- NO Prediction: around 5:20??

Notes on those splits:
- Bike!?!? I’ve been on my new bike, Goldilocks, for 2 whole outdoor rides. I’ve spent a good amount of time on my trainer and in spin classes, but it’s the bike portion of the day that I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT TO EXPECT!! Training for a Half IM over the winter in MN leaves many questions.
- In 2008, I did the run in a Grim Reaper outfit, so that’s why my run was 5 minutes slower (even though I was in better running shape). Remember this?

I’d love to PR. I’d LOVE to go sub-5:30. I’d REALLY LOVE to go sub-5:20. I should just make sure to finish the race. A good time would just be icing on the cake.

If I can find a nearby WI-FI spot in NO, I hope to post a few quick posts and photos when we’re down there. So check back Friday through Monday to see what’s going on!! I CAN’T WAIT!!! Wish us all luck!!


amybee 10:47 AM, March 31, 2009  

GOOD GOOD GOOD luck Steve!

You are going to ROCK!

trimybest 10:54 AM, March 31, 2009  

i stand by my prediction! keep your transitions fast and i wont be wrong! have fun and make sure your #1 goal is to finish.

Melanie 12:38 PM, March 31, 2009  

Good luck, I'll be thinking of you this weekend, you will do awesome! :D

Black Knight 1:00 PM, March 31, 2009  

I want that runner in the Black Knight Army!

Xenia 1:14 PM, March 31, 2009  

GOOD LUCK to you and Pharmie!!!

Jeff 1:16 PM, March 31, 2009  

Good luck! Drink chickory coffee, it's the trick... :)

Rural Girl 1:18 PM, March 31, 2009  

It's going to be GREAT! See you soon. I wish you all the best!

Marlene 1:30 PM, March 31, 2009  

Good luck to all! I smell a PR.

Curly Su 1:30 PM, March 31, 2009  

Good luck; you'll have a blast - eat a beneigt for me.

This is funny though - I was reading NO as meaning the opposite of yes, so I thought you were attempting to not jinx yourself by a non-prediction prediction. And then I realized NO meant New Orleans. And I'm from down there, I should know - I'm a goober sometimes.

We called it NOLA when we were down there last summer...

TRI-james 1:48 PM, March 31, 2009  

Those look like solid prdictions - not a jinx just careful planning!

Kelly 1:57 PM, March 31, 2009  

So it took me till the end of the post to remember that your race is abbreviated NO. I thought you were saying "no" prediction, to not jynx yourself. Very strange. I can't believe you bike 56miles?! I don't know if I told you but my biking portion of the indoor tri on Sunday was the slowest of the whole thing. That's right, I got the dreaded (1) next to my score. I deserved it. Next time it'll be better. So I'm in awe of your bike, just FYI. GOOD LUCK! Can't wait to hear all about it.

Chic Runner 2:14 PM, March 31, 2009  

Good luck steve and as you know, i love the grim outfit! Kick some butt!

aron 2:40 PM, March 31, 2009  

GOOD LUCK!!!!!! you will do awesome!!!!

X-Country2 2:42 PM, March 31, 2009  

You're going to do great! Good luck!

Amy 2:47 PM, March 31, 2009  

Good luck to you and Pharmie. I'm hoping for a sub 5:30. Regardless, it'll be fun. Hope to meet you guys down there.

Chloe 2:59 PM, March 31, 2009  

Whoo whoo! Good luck! After the race, be sure to look around the local bars for Amy (above) Melissa and I! It's going to be a good time - hope to see you there!

SixTwoThree 3:02 PM, March 31, 2009  

GOOD LUCK out there! I'll be thinking of you guys and sending good vibes your way. I'm sure you'll do great!!

t-odd 3:36 PM, March 31, 2009  

Good luck! Have a safe trip and race. I can't wait to read the race report. Being from MN you should be checking the weather report obsessively, at least that is what I would be doing right now. Go fast!

Chad in the AZ Desert 3:40 PM, March 31, 2009  

My best half was 5:51, so you are out of my league. I don't see any reason why you can't make it happen given your training to date. Good luck! You can do it!

Mel 3:57 PM, March 31, 2009  

Good luck, Steve!! Enjoy yourself before, during and after your race! NO is a special town! I know you will do awesome!! You have prepared for this PR!!

Audrey 3:59 PM, March 31, 2009  

I heard the song playing during your grim reaper dancing and immediately though of your antics. The song and the costume are now linked for me.

Best of luck in the race! You've definitely put in the time to own it. Have a great trip down there.

Jenny Davidson 4:10 PM, March 31, 2009  

Could be pretty warm and humid, though - might make sense to go a bit slower on the bike, stay well hydrated and figure it will serve you well on the run...

RBR 4:12 PM, March 31, 2009  

Best of luck to the Stenzel Clan!! My prediction: You both will have a great race and a great time!

FLATOUT JIM 4:19 PM, March 31, 2009  

That's a good goal dude. Bring it home.

Bootchez 4:31 PM, March 31, 2009  

Good luck to you both, and here's wishing you a great finish!

triitagain 4:43 PM, March 31, 2009  

New Orleans is a fun place and I bet the crowd is going to be CRAZY! Have fun and good luck to all.


sRod 5:59 PM, March 31, 2009  

Good luck Nahlins!!

J~Mom 6:18 PM, March 31, 2009  

Good luck!!! Have an awesome time out there!!

Michele 6:34 PM, March 31, 2009  

Good luck! I hope i get you meet you and Pharmie down there.
I go out in the VERY LAST wave so y'all might be nappng by the time I finish.

trigirl82 7:34 PM, March 31, 2009  

Good luck to you both!! :-)

Borsch 8:12 PM, March 31, 2009  

Wow...for a second or two I read that as no prediction...not...N.O. like the city abbreviation! I'm mentally spent!


Kelly 8:42 PM, March 31, 2009  

Good luck! Swim, Bike, and Run FAST!

Trishie 8:42 PM, March 31, 2009  

GOOD LUCK! have a great race, steve !!

Adam 9:18 PM, March 31, 2009  

Good luck buddy.

I STILL laugh out loud at the grim reaper costume every time I see it.

Tri-ing Fat Man 11:03 PM, March 31, 2009  

I welcome you to my town.

Enjoy and hope to meet you.

Look for the big guy - that'll be me . . .

Stef 11:07 PM, March 31, 2009  


You will rock it!!

21stCenturyMom 11:24 PM, March 31, 2009  

Good luck to both of you in NO. I will be at Oceanside trying to manage a PR on my 2nd 70.3 ever.

duchossois 6:16 AM, April 01, 2009  

I've something to say to both of you.


Laura 6:33 AM, April 01, 2009  

GOOD LUCK! Enjoy...

Shannon 6:36 AM, April 01, 2009  

Good Luck to the fastest IM 1/2 I'll ever see!

Missy 6:54 AM, April 01, 2009  

Best of luck, have a blast in NOLA and kick some arse. I know you will.

lindsay 7:40 AM, April 01, 2009  

good luck dude! love the costume from last time. you are truly a nutcase. :) get out there and rock n'awlins!

Kim 8:01 AM, April 01, 2009  

rock the shit out of NO steve!

Kim 8:18 AM, April 01, 2009  

steve - keep an eye out for my old QT2 coaches and teammates - i fully expect Tim Snow/Cait Snow/Jesse Kropelnicki will make top 10 :) but i secretly (well not so secretly) hope Jen Harrison kicks more butt down in CA!

Siren 8:48 AM, April 01, 2009  

Have a great race you guys! Can't wait to read the reports!

Anonymous,  9:30 AM, April 01, 2009  

Good Luck!!!!!!!! I am looking forward to reading all about your great times!

The Happy Runner 9:43 AM, April 01, 2009  

Yay -- good luck! And have fun!

Viv 10:33 AM, April 01, 2009  

Good luck Steve! i will be there too try not to knock me over or anything.

Polz├║nkov 10:38 AM, April 01, 2009  

Good luck, Steve!
Good luck to Pharmie too!

Will be sending good wishes all the way from Argentina!!!


Jim Smith II 11:08 AM, April 01, 2009  

That's not jinxing anything Steve, that's just positive visualization! Have a great time (and a great Time)! Go Steve Go.

Colleen 11:35 AM, April 01, 2009  

Best of luck to you and the wifey! Can't wait to hear how it goes!

Ms. R 11:42 AM, April 01, 2009  

Have a great time and I really hope you go sub 5:20!!! Ride Goldilocks like the wind :) hehe

Jess 11:55 AM, April 01, 2009  

Good luck meeting your predictions this Sunday!

Michele 2:05 PM, April 01, 2009  

Well Steve, I would LOVE to be at the finish line looking for finishers at 2:00!!! But I go out in the very last wave and will be having a great race to even be finishing then. So if y'all hang around for a while look for me. I will have on a yellow shirt with red flowers.

mthead 7:39 PM, April 01, 2009  

If you run in a Grim Reaper's outfit you HAVE TO SPRING FOR THE PHOTO. It's a rule.
Good luck, I think you'll be markedly faster on that bike if you can keep the tuck. Either way hope both of you rock it.

Jenny Davidson 3:30 PM, April 05, 2009  

Have been following eagerly on Ironman Live - congrats to both of you on some GOOD RACING!

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