Pre-Race Thoughts / Goals for the TC 10 Mile
>> Saturday, October 03, 2026
The TC 10 Mile is tomorrow. I’m in better shape than I ever thought I would be at this point (after brief injuries this winter and spring, and another flare-up at the start of this training cycle). So what’s my race plan and race goal?
When I started this training plan in early August, the goal was just to not embarrass myself at the race. I had to ease back a few times earlier this year because of injuries, so I had no lofty goal for the race. Just wanted to get in some decent training.
But as I shared in my recent posts about my two last months of training (found here and here), I was surprisingly able to turn out some fast workouts... way faster than I had expected.
Pre-race 2024, I BARELY flirted with the idea of going sub-60, and then the race became a BLAST because I was turning in amazing splits. I’m afraid of putting too much pressure on myself for this year‘s race, and then not being happy with a relatively decent time. I could finish in 60:55 which was my goal time 2 years ago and would still currently be my 3rd fastest lifetime 10 mile (I’ve only been under 1:01:20 twice), and I could be bummed about that. Which makes zero sense as type this. But it could easily happen that way. I don’t think I want to go out at a pace that would mean an amazing finish only to slow up a little and still have a good finish but be depressed about it. I would hate to post a good time and still be bummed at the finish line. That’s just not the way I want to spend my race.
I never fully trust this as it usually reads FAST, but my Garmin is saying 59:15.
(Picture taken on Thursday, which is why it states "3D:" the race was 3 days away.)
It shows my anticipated finishing time dropping over the last 4 weeks.
2024 also had a strong wind from the west - it pushed us home during this point-to-point race. It was a beautifully cool and perfect morning for a race, and Conner Mantz ran a course record of 45:13! (The top 5 times ever turned in at the TC 10 Mile were from 2024!) Being I had a good race on a perfect morning with perfect wind in 2024, I realistically can’t hope to be near that again. Or if I could be near that again, my training would have to be much better. Not just “similar.”
(Another reason I'm concerned about not being able to keep up with "2024 Steve" is that I set 3 lifetime running PRs in the spring of 2024: 5 mile, 10K, then 5K. I was coming off a GREAT few years of running. This year has been much more sporadic. Back to the upcoming race...)
In 2024, I hoped to be well under 31:00 at the halfway point, but I hit mile 5 at 30:03. And I wanted to be at mile 7 in 43:30 so I could possibly negative split my way to sub-61, but I was 75 seconds faster at 42:15 at that point. And I dropped down below 6:00 overall pace at mile 8 (47:59 overall at mile 8).
This year, I think my mid-race goals are to split the difference between my *goals* from 2024 and my *actual splits* from 2024. Sub-30:30 at mile 5 would be good. Then can I keep mile 6 faster than usual like I did in 2024? If I turn in a good first half, and then a good mile 6 and not feel DEAD, I’ll be happy... and then I'll be trying to see how much time I can shave off my finish.
In that "comparably trained" year of 2024, I was THRILLED with my mile 6-8 splits: 6:07, 6:01, and 5:44. (I even noted in a later post with some "final race thoughts" that miles 6 and 7 in 2024 were 0:41 faster than the average of those miles for all other TC 10 Miles of mine!! I ran 12:08 instead of my average of 12:49 for those miles in all previous years!) Compare that to miles 6-8 of 2025's race report where I wasn't quite as trained as I am this year, and I ran 6:24, 6:26, and 6:14 for those 3 miles. That's a difference of 1:12 over JUST those 3 miles between 2024 (FAST) and 2025 (depressingly average). There's a good chance that the good training in 2024 really showed up in those later miles of the race... and I'm hoping that happens again tomorrow!!
And even in my "pre-race goals" post from 2024, I noted how I would much rather speed up throughout the race as I wrote about paying attention to my half-way split at mile 5:
And again, how I'm feeling will play a part in my mood here: running 31:00 while feeling GREAT will have me pushing for a big negative split (which historically can turn out some decent race times for me), while running 30:00 while feeling DEAD will make those next uphill miles really slow and depressing, and I'll stop wanting to push myself.
Looking back to all of my 10 mile finishes (I think all but 3 are TC 10 Miles), you can see that I tend to finish around 1:02:something:
10 mile races (15 total):
59:xx: 2 times
1:01:xx: 3 times
1:02:xx: 9 times
1:03:xx: 1 time (at the end of the Loony Challenge race weekend)
I SHOULD be able to set a 3rd best 10 mile time of sub-1:01:20, I really think I can be under 61, and there's an outside chance that I could go sub-60 if everything comes together perfectly. I'm going out with 1:00:59 as my goal, and I'll see if I can chip away at that later in the the race if I have fitness left to spend! And I think that's the big question: how hard can I go in miles 6-8? Will this better training "show up" for those later miles and allow me to keep building speed? And can I stay fast enough in the earlier miles to give me a shot at a better finish? (Without blowing up by going TOO hard TOO early?)
Stay tuned!! Good luck all 10 Milers and Marathoners!!
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