Pre-Race Thoughts for the TC 10 Mile

The training is done. I woke up this morning with a "99" on my Garmin for "training readiness," and I've never seen a number that high before:

It's also showing I'm "peaking" for my training (purple)
after some weeks of "productive" training (green). GOOD TIMING!!

I'm REALLY happy with how well I kept up with "2010 Steve's" training splits, but as I've been saying for months, it helps that I have a Garmin now and that it gives me half-mile splits. That extra feedback is helping me hit splits that I was hitting 14 years ago when I just had known mile markers on any given route. We'll have to see how this all translates to a race tomorrow!

Here are 4 big "check-ins" I'll be doing throughout the race:

• FIRST: mile 3 split and total time at mile 3. The first mile is just getting into a grove - it could be fast or slow, and as I stated at the beginning of my 2010 TC 10 Mile race report where I ran 59:05, an extra fast or extra slow first mile won't ruin anything. (Just not TOO fast to start!!) The second mile is mostly downhill and then some gentle rollers along the river. And then the first "test" comes in mile 3 - it's a long uphill from the edge of the Mississippi River up about 100 feet to end up crossing the Franklin Ave Bridge. And then the "mile 3" marker is just across the bridge.

If I'm feeling good and that I really want to suffer for the next 40-some minutes, I could push it up that hill a little. Normally, that's a slower split of mine (generally around 6:30), but in my PR year, it was 5:41 (I'm NOT planning on being that fast!). How much do I want to put myself in a hole early on with the possible pay-off of a fast time? (Or the other possible outcome of crashing and burning at mile 7 or 8 if I go TOO hard?) Again, in my PR year I hit mile 3 at 17:27 overall, but most years I'm around 18:20-18:40. I'm not giving myself any specific goals, but I'd love to be just over 18:00 at this point.

• SECOND: total time at mile 5. There's a timing mat there, and it's right before a short nasty hill, and then a long "false flat" that we go up for 2 miles. I don't really care about mile 4 or 5 as they're on my normal training grounds with small rollers. I need to keep those miles moving, but I won't be too concerned with an overly fast or slow split in there.

But I'd love to see a decent number at the half-way point: I don't think I'll be close to 30:00 flat, but I'd love to be decently under 31:00. (That's a small window... I know!) And again, how I'm feeling will play a part in my mood here: running 31:00 while feeling GREAT will have me pushing for a big negative split (which historically can turn out some decent race times for me), while running 30:00 while feeling DEAD will make those next uphill miles really slow and depressing, and I'll stop wanting to push myself.

• THIRD: individual mile splits at mile 6, 7, and 8. I need to be strong here! Historically, I often end up saying "I think I could have been faster in those middle miles," and I want to BELIEVE in my training and push hard here. The last 2 times I raced this in 2021 and in 2022, I had BAD splits in those miles: 2021 was 6:25, 6:24, and then finally a 6:05; and 2022 was 6:24, 6:25, and 6:16. Every one of those splits I had wanted to be faster at that point. Yes, it's heading up a false flat, but I want to be knocking those split down!

But I also have to be realistic there. My PR year had those 3 splits being 6:17, 6:10, and 5:46, so I realistically can't (shouldn't) be shooting for 6:00 flat for those miles - that'd be dumb. Two of those 3 splits in 2010 were my slowest splits of the race. So it IS a slow part of the course for me (probably for everyone) and I need to accept that, but I also need to try to work through it and keep it strong.

• FOURTH: overall time at mile 7 (and maybe mile 8). When I'm getting closer to the end of a longer race like this, I start doing math heading backwards from the finish line: "OK, if I can run 6:00/mile for these last 3 miles, then I have 18:00 left... am I where I want to be?" Around mile 7 or 8 will be the first time I'm really thinking about my "realistic" finishing time. An AMAZING day would put me at 60:xx at the finish. I'm not even dreaming of breaking 60:00, so ANYTHING starting with SIX ZERO would be fan-freaking-tastic. If I see 43:30 at mile 7, that means (if I'm feeling good) if I can run 5:50s to the finish, I can hit 61:00 flat. If at mile 8, I see anything around 49:00 flat on my watch, I'll be thrilled. That'd be amazing! If I can run mile 9 and then a faster (downhill) mile 10 in 11:59 total, then I'll be fist-pumping my way to a 60:59! I REALLY don't know if that's possible, but sub-61 is my best possible outcome.

My 2nd best possible outcome is to run a 2nd best 10 mile time. In 2011 (the year after my "coached" year of hitting my 59:05 PR for the 10 mile), I re-used Coach Jen's workouts and ran my 2nd best 10 mile of 1:01:20. I've been better about hitting those workouts these last few months, but I was also 14 years younger back then. So I'm faster on paper now, but wisdom says I might be dragging ass this year. So really, a lot of my predictions are based on that year: I "used" coach's workouts without officially being coached, and cranked out a 1:01:20. Can I break that this year with better cross training and more consistent running as an "old guy?"

Oh, and here are my times from my official 10 mile races:

10 mile races (13 total):

59:xx: 1 time
1:01:xx: 3 times
1:02:xx: 8 times
1:03:xx: 1 time (at the end of the Loony Challenge race weekend)

My 2 other 1:01:xx times were 1:01:41 and 1:01:59, so anything under 1:01:20 will make it my 2nd fastest 10 mile out of 14 races! And that's what I'll be shooting for!

Oh, and it's worth noting that I DON'T think I'll be WORKING to hit those times above at every "check-in" along the way. If some of these earlier miles start slipping away, I don't think I'll REALLY up the pace to get back on track. I'd much rather let some time slip away if needed, and then hope I have the training to lay down some fast closing miles vs trying to keep a certain pace early when I'm dying, and then REALLY suffer and lose time in the final few miles. I'm AWARE of these times I want to hit above, but I don't NEED to hit them at every check-in.


POSITIVE THOUGHTS:

1. Training has been solid! I’ve had many workouts a little faster or a little slower than my workouts from 14 years ago, and that has really given me some confidence.

2. Training has been varied. I haven’t been doing the same few workouts over and over again.

3. My cross training is better than it was 14 years ago. Four of my biggest months of cycling (since 2009 at least) have happened over the last five months. My overall endurance might be the best that it’s ever been in my life. Wow... that's a confidence booster to type!

4. Older = wiser. ??????????? Maybe????????


NEGATIVE THOUGHTS:

1. I have no idea what’s a realistic pace.

2. I have no idea what’s a realistic pace.

3. I have no idea what’s a realistic pace. Really, this is my biggest concern. Working with an actual coach (and not just looking back on old workouts from a coach) would have been able to give me more thoughts on how I should first start the race, and what I could realistically expect overall. Instead, I’m running blind. I want to run as best as I can, but I also don't want to go out too hard and just crash-and-burn at mile 7. There's a fine line!!!

4. It’s been two years since my last long distance race. And with shorter speed work these last few years, I’m afraid I could go out “too hot” and really pay the price later.

5. Older = slower. I can train like I did when I was young, but I don’t think I can quite race like I did when I was young.

6. I can’t hold onto the same level of pain as I could when I was younger. I really suffered for that 59:05 in 2010. Let’s say that same level of suffering could get me down to 60:30 this year... if that’s true, I’d only be able to “suffer” my way to 61:15 or so, because I can't "suffer" like I did when I was in my 20s. I really need to try to convince myself to be strong in those middle miles.


As usual, I’m probably just overthinking all of this. I’ll go out there, see how I react to what’s happening, try to suffer hard, and crank out whatever I can. STAY TUNED!!!!