Predicting the Outcome of the SHOWDOWN in 6 Days

I've been running the numbers for the big SHOWDOWN at the YWCA Indoor Triathlon in 6 days. It doesn't look good for me.

I did the MINI sprint distance a year ago (Here's my race report from that race, where Pharmie raced as well when she was 32 weeks pregnant!) Lisa (the woman I'm trying to beat so she has to watch my boys for 2 hours as I get in a workout sometime) has done 2 indoor tris at the Y already this year. She's done the MEGA sprint distance - the distance that we will be racing this weekend.

I'm much faster in the pool this year than I was last year, so I THINK I can hope to hold the same pace this year for 600 yards that I held last year for 400 yards. So that would look like this:

LAST YEAR: 6:08 for 400 yards (1:32/100 pace)
IF I HOLD THE SAME PACE THIS YEAR: 9:12 for 600 yards
1:14 - 1:29 slower than Lisa's 2 races

This year, I have no reason to say that I'll be FASTER on the bike, but last year at the MINI sprint, I noted that I was "more nonchalant on the bike." So I'm pretty sure I can hold the same pace I did last year for 8 miles over the 12 mile ride this year simply by pushing more. (But the "X-factor" here is that Lisa and I agreed to keep the resistance sent to 12, so I don't know what that does to my prediction.) Here's how the bike looks:

LAST YEAR: 13:03 for "8 mile" bike (97.88 secs / mile)
IF I HOLD THE SAME PACE THIS YEAR: 19:35 for "12 mile" bike
1:53 - 2:25 slower than Lisa's 2 races

So based on my times from last year compared to Lisa's 2 races this year, I'd expect to be about 3:07 - 3:54 behind Lisa as we come off the bike. That's a big deficit. And I know what you're saying: "But Steve, you're such a good runner. That won't be a problem for you." My strength may be running, but Lisa's strong there too. In her 2 indoor tris this year, she did the 25 lap 5K in 20:16 and 21:30. Can I beat those times? I hope so. Can I beat those times by 3:07 - 3:54? No. Even if I could beat her slowest time by 3:07, that's still an 18:23 5K. I can't do that coming off the bike.

In the spirit of fairness and complete transparency, here's what I'm hoping for at the race this weekend: I want to be within 2 laps of Lisa when I hop off the bike. At 6:00 pace (I'm not SAYING I can do 6:00 pace), 2 laps on the 200 meter track is 90 seconds. I think I can make that much up on Lisa. If it's 3 or 4 laps, I'll be depressed. If it's 5 laps, I'll probably just lay down and cry. The goal is to hit the track within 2 laps of Lisa.

Oh, and in related news, guess who's announcing the race?...

CLICK HERE if you don't know about this showdown or our wager. Sunday's the day. Wish me luck.