>> Tuesday, September 30, 2014
This post is structured like this (with the first one being the longest):
I. Goal Times
II. Recent Training
I. Goal Times:
There are so many variables, but here's my most "realistic" (and slightly optimistic) guess:
Saturday, 7:30 am, TC 10K: 38:xx
Saturday, 9:00 am, TC 5K: 19:xx
Combined 10K and 5K time: 57:30 (for example: 38:30 and 19:00)
Sunday, 7:00 am, TC 10 Mile: 1:03:xx
Total time: 2:01:00
OK, so where do I begin with all the different variables and how this can all go out the window in no time? I really have no idea how to run the first 2 races on Saturday. How much do I leave "in the tank?" These numbers are hard to predict when starting 3 races within 24 hours of each other.
My initial plan was to run the 10K a bit easier, race the 5K a bit harder, and then just do what I could do for the 10 Mile. But that was my ego talking - I didn't want to see a super slow 5K result. Then as Thomas obviously pointed out when I interviewed him (he was last year's "Loony Challenge" winner), we can "make up" the most time in the 10 Mile. If I were to try to get a minute faster in the 5K, that'd maybe cost me 2 minutes in the 10 Mile the next day (and a lot more suffering). So my 5K time would look nicer, but my overall time would be worse. Bad idea.
Here's what I'll be thinking about during the 10K and 5K: Thomas mentioned feeling better than he thought he would during the 10 Mile the next day. So how much CAN I push during the 10K and 5K? Just yesterday, I ran into speedy Jenny Wilcox - you might remember her as the "soccer mom" who had a throw-down with me at the Mosquito Man duathlon 4 years ago:
Jenny and I after our race. (HERE'S the awesome race report.)
II. Recent Training:
In all of my recent 10-11.5 mile runs, my "race pace" 5-6 miles near the middle have been ran at 6:12 to 6:20 pace (AVERAGE pace for those miles - I can't keep EVERY mile between 6:12 and 6:20). Being that was the middle of a long run, I should hopefully be able to run my 10K just a bit faster than that and NOT feel dead. Right? A 38:30 10K is 6:11 pace, a 19:00 5K is 6:07 pace, and a 1:03:30 10 Mile is 6:21 pace. I THINK that all sounds do-able based on my last 2 months of training. Maybe the 10K will have to be a bit slower, and maybe the 10 Mile will start to really hurt and slow up a bit too. But it's something to shoot for.
And 3 weeks ago was the biggest week of running (36.19 miles) since August of 2013!
Both of Saturday's races start with a not-so-fun uphill, but then we get to enjoy that downhill on our way to the finish (as I'll be trying NOT to sprint too hard!):
10K elevation chart: big climb, flat near the middle of the "out" and "back,"
with a little climb at the middle over Ayd Mill Road.
5K elevation chart: big climb and then rollers.
I hope to have a wardrobe change on Saturday between the races so I can race in both my "Tutti Frutti" shorts and my "Pinky and the Brain" shorts:
Both at the Gear West Duathlon (different years).
2009, 2010 (the 59:05 year), and 2011.
Last Wednesday was my last long, hard run. Friday I did a nasty middle-distance run, and Sunday I did an easy run with some 2 minute pick-ups. Today I'll be heading out with Charlie for about 6 easy miles with the stroller.
I did my last PT leg workout last week, and now they're resting up. Yesterday, I did my last good core workout. I'll be doing some strength work leading up to the race, but now it's all easy stuff. I mentioned it a few weeks ago: I canNOT rest up too much leading up to this big weekend.
The BIGGEST mistake I think I could easily make this weekend is racing the 10K too hard. I cannot afford to put myself through too much pain and then have heavy legs for the rest of the weekend just to shave a minute off the first race.
The second biggest mistake would be not recovering properly (between the back-to-back 10K and 5K, and during the rest of the day before the 10 Mile on Sunday). Tim pointed out that was a major issue of his last year when I interviewed him about it, and Coach Liz stressed the importance of that too (in the same interview).
Bottom line: if I manage to break 2:00:00, that would be amazing! And on the other side, I really hope I can keep it under 2:05:00. That's a pretty small window from "AMAZING" to "OH CRAP," so we'll see what happens. Keep an eye on my twitter account for weekend updates! (It's also embedded here on the sidebar of my blog.) This should be good...