>> Thursday, March 25, 2010
Well, I guess it’s “PR or Bust” on Sunday!
I went to the ever-trusted McMillan Running Calculator yesterday to see if my recent 4 miler gave me some hope at a 5K PR. Based on that 4 mile race last weekend, these were my calculations:
(One thing that I’ve noticed about every running calculator that I’ve tried is that I seem to never have the DISTANCE SPEED that they say I have. That chart above, based on my 4 mile race last weekend, has my 10 mile time estimated at 1:00. [I’ve ran 3 between 1:02:19 and 1:02:44, most recently 10 days ago.] And it estimates my half marathon time at 1:20. [I’ve ran 3 between 1:28:05 and 1:29:35.] So if it ALWAYS predicts TOO FAST over longer races and TOO SLOW over shorter races, MAYBE I can bang out a 17:15. This is all just speculation on what I’ve noticed over the past few years when using these calculators.)
I noted last weekend that felt like I ran that 4 mile race PERFECTLY. My first mile was FAST, but it wasn’t killer (and that’s the key to a short race for me - well, probably the key for anyone). I held onto that pace near the middle. And I finished strong.
That means I need to race this weekend’s 5K perfectly as well. If the first mile is too slow, the PR will be out of reach. If I race the first mile too fast, I’ll “blow up” before the finish line. I feel like 5:30 is too fast, but 5:45 is too slow. That’s a small window.
I guess we’ll have to wait and see. If it doesn’t go well, I may have to remove my nipples in angst: