>> Sunday, October 09, 2011
Jeez, my predictions were pretty spot-on for this race. I made a lot of pre-race predictions in this post 10 days ago, and here's how 5 of those panned out:
• I said there was a 65% chance of finishing between 1:00:00 and 1:02:19. And I finished right near the middle of that in 1:01:20.
• I nailed my opening pace. I said "I'll probably go out somewhere between my slower start in 2009 and my faster start last year. I bet I'll hit mile 5 in under 31:00." I hit mile 5 in 30:49. Boom. And look at how even my splits were at that point:
1:02:43 in 2009
59:05 in 2010
1:01:20 in 2011
• I had noted that I did NOT have the same level of cross training as I had last year. I posted this: "...All of this will hurt me around mile 6-8 of the race. I'll be H.U.R.T.I.N.G. at that point, and I'll have little to pull me through." Well, that nearly off-the-charts slow mile at mile 6 (and 7) was proof that I wasn't as trained.
• I also predicted that my final mile would be fast: "...So no matter how I finish, mile 10 should look good on paper." Well, look at that chart above. Yeah... my closing mile was off-the-charts FAST! I had WAY too much left, and finished with a 5:27 final mile! (Yes, it's a "downhill" mile, but that's still too fast!)
• Actually, here's my full final prediction from my "prediction post": "My closing miles will be fast. When I question my endurance, I usually ease up too much in the middle, and then have a lot to use in the final mile or 2. So no matter how I finish, mile 10 should look good on paper. This isn't a good thing."
Read that last quote again, because that's EXACTLY what happened.
I wussed out. Plain and simple. I wasn't sure how much I could push the pace on my scaled-back training plan this year. So instead of pushing it and seeing if cold work my way up to "the line," I kept it a little easy to avoid crashing and burning. I'm a little disappointed in myself. I felt OK during and after the race (knowing that I didn't quite give it everything in the middle), but as it's set in, I've been annoyed that I didn't go harder. I KNOW I could have been sub-1:01 had I raced more mentally strong in those middle miles.
Photo from just after the finish - still breathing hard
(Oh hi, "vein of approval!" I haven't seen you in a while!)
2010 (Start-to-3.8 and 3.8-to-finish)
2011 (Start-to-5 and 5-to-finish)
- In 2010, I passed 43 people between the start and the next timing mat. This year, I passed 235 because I stupidly started too far back (I spent the first full mile dodging people and shooting up and down the curb to pass people that I should have started in front of).
According to my finisher's certificate, I only started 1 second behind the starting line last year...
So there you go - that's my over-analyzed TC 10 Mile from this year. Hopefully, some of my family will want to run it with me again next year, AND hopefully we get selected for a 4th straight year in the lottery!
- CLICK HERE for my "prediction" post
- CLICK HERE for my race report
- CLICK HERE for photos of the farm animals cheering at the Marathon
- CLICK HERE to see the insane video of the farm animals dancing at the Marathon (cover your children's eyes...)