Changing from the 5000 to the 1500 for Tomorrow

There are 2 PROs and 1 CON for doing this.

The PROs are that (1) it's going to be HOT, and 5000 is a long way to suffer on the track in the heat. Note my horrible long run earlier this week because of the heat. And (2) there are 2 other men from my team racing, and they are doing the 1500 (and we need 3 men to score). So it would be a pointless 5000 in the eyes of my team.

The only CON for changing to the 1500 is I think I'm in pretty good 5K shape! But that wouldn't matter anyway if it were hot and I started to die after 4 laps.

I looked at "mile to 1500 meter" conversations on track websites, and I found that 4:37.8 is an "expected" time for the 1500 if you can do the mile (not 1600) in 5:00. (Source: here and here.) Another discussion went farther in-depth, and noted that dividing a mile time by 1.08 would give you a 1500 meter equivalent, and 1.0727 would be the factor if you kept the same pace. But the 1.08 is considered more accurate because it accounts for the slightly faster speed in not having to run that final 109 meters. (Using 1.08, you get the same 4:37.8 as above. And using the 1.0727, you get 4:39.7 - that's the exact pace as a 5:00 mile, but doesn't account for the 1500 being a bit shorter, and therefore faster.)

So, being this is my first 1500, that's my goal: to break 4:37.8 and have a sub-5 equivalent in the mile. I've actually never ran a mile (or 1600) on a 400 meter track - they've all been road miles or 1600s/1 miles on a 200 meter indoor track. If it's hot, my time might slip a bit. (But I ran a decently fast sub-5:00 mile at last summer's Raspberry Run when I noted it was 86 and humid at the start. I might not have time to overheat in a 1500.) I'd LOVE to be able to try to break 4:30, but I think that's a long-shot. (That's the equivalent to a 4:51.5 mile, and I just ran a 4:59.6 at last month's TC 1 Mile. I did one "mile specific" track workout 10 days ago, but otherwise have no reason to think I'll drop 8 seconds.) Also, I'm not a fast/smart/good track racer. :(

An aggressively fast estimation when registering, because that's what everyone does.

If I run everything at 5:00/1600 pace, that'd be 0:56 for the first 300 meters, and then 1:15 for the last three 400s, for a 4:41 finishing time. So I'll be watching my watch to see if I can run each split at least 1 second faster than that: opening of 0:55, and then last 3 laps at 1:14. I'm HOPING I can count how many seconds FASTER than that I am for each split, but who knows! The goal is just to make it hurt. BAD.

Well, off to the races tomorrow! Hoping to be fast!